The recent articles on Nigeria by Jeffrey Tayler, Worse Than Iraq? for the Atlantic Monthly and G. Pascal Zachary, Nigeria: The Next Quagmire? for Alertnet.org attenuated both writers', and to larger extent western experts' analyses of events in Nigeria in particular and Africa in general as lacking. Both authors wrote on Nigeria because they believed it is the next Iraq. Their un-informed knowledge of Nigeria led them to supposed the recent militancy in the Niger Delta region as evidence of bigger implosion to come. We might be reminded that that road was paved for them by the impertinent and subversive U.S intelligence report "warning" that Nigeria might break up in 15 years with no new evidence other than the Nigeria's ever recurring ethnic afflictions. And since all the recent oil price increases are blamed on the unrest in Nigeria it is natural for the experts to dust up their expertise cap and don it. Now suddenly Nigeria's oil has become so influential as to cause ripples around the world. This is suspect and this is where the ruling politicians must be very very careful on security. Under the military rule dangers like this were minimum not because the military juntas cared more about the national security than their gullible civillian counterparts but rather for fear of usurpation. And so during all the destructive military years it was impossible neither for U.S intelligence warning about Nigeria disintegrating in no time nor experts comparing it to Iraq. They all generally kept their "expertise" opinion to human right violations by the juntas and could go no further. But now democracy has changed that.
Now while both writers' recordings of the Nigeria crisis are basically correct, these however were nothing new as the country has grappled with them since 1914's amalgamation and even fought a destructive civil war because of them and so their conclusion: that Nigeria is on the verge of civil war and implosion and might be the next Iraq betrayed ignorant. That both writers suffixed their titles with question mark merely confirmed this fact.
But of course the Nigerian lukeworm politicians and their policies on national security hasn't helped matter. Atiku's recent call for U.S assistance on the Niger Delta crisis is one example. Why would Nigeria need Americans to maintain security within its own border? The Nigerian Army send troops for peace-keeping to troubled spots around the world but cannot maintain same at home? Also retired Gen. Victor Malu, the former COAS had warned Obasanjo against giving the Americans too much leeway at the Defence Headquaters. He was not heard but instead removed. All these are risky national security policies. Outside of subversive outside elements Nigeria's chances of implosion are as slim as America making Iraq peaceful again.
Nigeria, News
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